From mid-segment to luxury — price ranges, dynamics, and liquidity
In 2025, Warsaw’s residential real estate market finally moved out of a period of turbulence into a phase best described as “expensive but stable.” The sharp price spikes seen in 2021–2022 have not repeated themselves, yet there has been no significant price correction either — the capital remains Poland’s most expensive and most liquid property market.
Average prices at the end of 2025:
- The average asking price for new apartments stood at approximately PLN 18,400 per m².
- Actual transaction prices were lower — around PLN 17,000–17,700 per m², depending on the project and location. The gap between asking and closing prices widened again, creating more room for negotiations.
Market segmentation:
- Mid-segment (mainstream market): PLN 12,000–18,000 per m².
The most liquid segment, with strong demand in districts well connected by metro and public transport and equipped with developed infrastructure (Wola, Mokotów, Praga-Południe, Bemowo). - Premium: PLN 20,000–35,000 per m².
Central locations, modern developments, higher-quality finishes, parking facilities, and additional services. - Luxury: from PLN 35,000 per m² and above.
Primarily Śródmieście and the best parts of Wola; selected offers reach PLN 40,000–45,000 per m². This is a narrow but resilient segment, supported by high-net-worth buyers and institutional investors.
Market dynamics in 2025:
- In Q4 2025, 3,757 new apartments were sold in Warsaw.
- At the same time, supply increased — in December, approximately 16,685 new units were available on the market.
This translates into more choice for buyers, less pressure on prices, and a slower pace of growth. - After several years of double-digit increases, price growth slowed down — in 2025, prices rose by an average of 3–6% year-on-year. This represents a cooling rather than a stagnation.
Liquidity by segment:
- Mid-segment — highest liquidity; properties sell and lease out most quickly.
- Premium — longer selling times but greater price resilience during downturns.
- Luxury — lower liquidity but less sensitive to mortgage rates and more dependent on scarcity and prime locations.
Outlook for 2026:
- The market is expected to remain stable with moderate price growth roughly in line with inflation.
- Developer sales could increase by 6–12% year-on-year, assuming a slight decline in mortgage rates and continued income growth.
- The premium and luxury segments are likely to remain robust, with demand concentrated in prime locations, supporting price levels at the top end of the market.
Investment Conclusions and Recommendations:
The current market configuration indicates that Warsaw is transitioning into a phase of mature growth characterized by more predictable price dynamics and reduced volatility.
From an investment strategy perspective, the mid-segment remains the most rational choice for assets focused on capital turnover and stable rental demand: this segment offers the most favorable balance between liquidity, risk, and cash flow predictability.
The premium segment should be viewed as a vehicle for capital preservation with greater resilience to market shocks, albeit with longer exposure periods and less dynamic resale potential.
The luxury segment should be considered a niche investment category, where the primary value drivers are the scarcity of location and asset quality rather than the availability of mortgage financing; such properties are best suited for investors with a long-term horizon and low sensitivity to liquidity.
In 2026, the market is likely to be characterized by moderate price growth and improved sales volumes in the primary market, creating a favorable environment for cautious, selective investment based on rigorous project and location analysis.
